National Association of REALTORS® Story:

Pending Home Sales Rise, Wider Gains Anticipated as Buyers Tap Housing Provisions

WASHINGTON, August 07, 2008

Some improvement is projected for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with broader gains seen by the fourth quarter as buyers take advantage of new provisions provided through the recently passed housing stimulus bill, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 84.5 in May, but remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range. “The vacillation of data from one month to the next indicates a housing market in transition,” he said. “The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.”

The PHSI in the South jumped 9.3 percent to 92.4 in June but is 16.6 percent below June 2007. In the West, the index rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in June but remains 1.7 percent below a year ago. The index in the Northeast increased 3.4 percent to 79.6 but is 15.4 percent below June 2007. In the Midwest, the index rose 1.3 percent in June to 79.6 but is 13.3 percent below a year ago.

Sales gains have been consistently strong in recent months in Sacramento, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Ft. Myers, Fla., where affordability conditions have greatly improved.² The pickup in contract signings appears to be broadening with many affordable markets in mid-America now showing year-over-year gains, including Columbus, Ohio; Charleston, W.V.; Oklahoma City; and Colorado Springs, Colo. Pending sales have fallen significantly in Texas markets and in the Pacific Northwest - two regions with very strong local economies.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. “Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the economy should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit,” he said.

“These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future,” Gaylord said.

With roughly 2.5 million first-time home buyers taking advantage of the temporary tax credit, existing-home sales are likely to rise 7.0 percent to 5.51 million in 2009 from a expected total of 5.15 million this year.

Yun said home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter. “Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices,” he said. “ In addition, rising commodity prices and higher construction costs have resulted in a very unusual market today with existing-home prices being less than replacement building costs in some areas. Home prices are projected to increase 3 to 6 percent in 2009.”

“Builders need to further cut production to help trim inventory. However, new-home sales are expected to bottom around the second quarter of next year with slight gains in the second half of 2009,” Yun said. New-home sales are forecast to drop 8.8 percent to 464,000 in 2009 from 509,000 this year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should fall 17.2 percent next year to 795,000 from 960,000 in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been vacillating, is likely to trend up to 6.5 percent by the end of 2008, and then hold at that level for most of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to remain favorable this year, averaging 13 percentage points higher than in 2007.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.5 percent in 2008 and 6.0 percent next year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 4.1 percent in 2008 and 2.6 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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¹The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

²Market information is from unpublished snapshot data; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.

Second quarter metropolitan area home prices and state home sales will be published August 14. Existing-home sales for July will be released August 25; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released September 9.

© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611

June Massachusetts Housing Report

Massachusetts Home Sales Down in June and Second Quarter

Month-to-month gains continue and months of supply
down to its lowest level in a year!

WALTHAM, Mass. – July 28, 2008 - The Massachusetts Association of REALTORS® (MAR) reported today that both single-family home sales and condominium sales were down 14.9 percent and 20.3 percent respectively in June compared to the same time last year.
On a month-to-month basis, both single-family sales and condominium sales continue to go up. Listings (the number of homes for sale) and months of supply (the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory) are down compared to the same time last year.
In the second quarter of 2008, single-family homes were down 13.7 percent and condominium sales were down 23.6 percent.
“While we were hoping to see the trend of narrowing sales declines we experienced in April and May, that just didn’t happen in June,” said MAR President, Susan M. Renfrew, broker/co-owner of Renfrew Real Estate in Greenfield. “However, median prices are at their highest level in several months, while the number of homes for sale and the months of supply are continuing to come down, meaning demand for those properties could start to increase.”
There were 4,225 detached single-family homes sold this June, a 14.9 percent decrease from the 4,963 homes sold the same time last year. On a month-to-month basis, home sales were up 21 percent from 3,491 homes sold this past May. This is the fourth straight month in which sales have gone up at least 20 percent from the month prior.
The median selling price for single-family homes in June was $334,000, a decrease of 8.0 percent compared to $364,000 in June 2007. The June median is the highest monthly median price since October 2007. On a month-to-month basis, the June median selling price was up 3.8 percent from May 2008 at $322,500.
The condominium market experienced a significant decrease in the number of units sold this June, with a 20.3 percent drop compared to the same time last year (from 2,355 units sold in 2007 to 1,876 units sold in 2008). This is the smallest decrease since December 2007, when sales went down only 14 percent. On a month-to-month basis, condominium sales were up 14.4 percent compared to 1,640 units sold this past May.
Condominium median selling prices in June were down less than one percent from $296,000 in 2007 to $295,000 in 2008. Virtually unchanged from year ago, the June median is the highest monthly median since July 2007. Compared to this past May, the median selling price of a condominium is up 4.4 percent (from $282,500).
“There continues to be opportunities in this market, but it is anyone’s guess how the issues surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will play out,” said Renfrew. “We are encouraged that Congress and the President see the importance of restoring confidence in the credit markets.”

Inventory and Days on Market:
The inventory of residential properties on the market as of June 30, 2008 decreased 7.0 percent compared to the same time last year (from 54,497 listings in 2007 to 50,705 listings in 2008). At the current sales pace, this represents approximately 8.3 months of supply, an increase from 7.4 months of supply in June 2007. This is the lowest months of supply since June of last year. This past February months of supply was at 16.6 months, the highest number in five years. On a month-to-month basis, the average months of supply is down from 9.8 months in May 2008. It is considered a balanced market when there are between 7.5 and 8.5 months of supply.
The inventory of single-family homes decreased 5.0 percent from June 2007 (37,498 listings in 2007 to 35,516 listings in 2008) which translates into 8.4 months of supply in June 2008. This is up from 7.6 months of supply last year and down from 10.0 months of supply in May 2008.
The condominium market saw June inventory decrease by 11.0 percent from last year (16,999 listings in 2007 to 15,189 listings in 2008), which translates into 8.0 months of supply, up from 7.2 months in June 2007 and down from 9.5 months this past May.
Detached single-family homes stayed on the market an average of 129 days in June 2008 compared to an average of 126 days in June 2007, while condos stayed on the market an average of 140 days, up from an average of 124 days in June 2007. On a month-to-month basis, June was down from 143 days and condos were up from 135 days in May.

Quarterly Information:
The number of single-family homes sold in the second quarter of 2008 was down 13.7 percent compared to the same time last year (12,184 homes sold in 2007 to 10,518 homes sold in 2008). Median selling prices were down 8.5 percent from $355,000 in 2007 to $325,000 in 2008.
The condominium market experienced an even greater drop in the number of units sold than the single-family market did in the first quarter compared to the same quarter last year with a 23.6 percent decrease (6,283 units sold in 2007 to 4,802 units sold in 2008). Median selling prices were down only 0.9 percent to $285,000 from $287,500 in 2007.

Quarterly Regional Sales Data:
Regionally, every part of the state saw a decrease in sales compared to the same quarter last year, with Cape Cod only experiencing a drop of 0.6 percent (938 homes sold in 2007 compared to 932 homes sold in 2008). Of the seven regions, the Western region experienced the largest drop in sales at 20.5 percent with 1,675 homes sold in Q1 2007 compared to 1,331 homes sold in Q1 2008.
While the Western region experienced the largest drop in home sales, it also experienced the lowest drop median prices at 4.1 percent from $219,000 in 2007 to $210,000 in 2008. It was the South Shore region of the state that had the largest drop in median prices at 11.4 percent from $350,000 in 2007 to $310,100 in 2008.
In the condo market, Cape Cod and the Islands had the smallest drop in sales, with a 15.1 percent decrease compared to the same quarter last year with 218 units sold in 2007 to 185 units sold in 2008. Unfortunately, the South Shore region also had the biggest decrease in condo sales at 33.7 percent, going from 724 units sold in 2007 to 237 units sold in 2008.
Cape Cod had a 1.7 percent increase in median prices (from $250,800 in 2007 to $255,000 in 2008), with the Greater Boston region staying even at $360,000. The Southeast region experienced the biggest drop, with a significant 24.6 percent drop compared to the same quarter last year (from $173.000 in 2007 to $130,450 in 2008).
“The regional data is a good example of how all real estate is truly local,” said Renfrew. “For example, Western Mass. had the biggest drop in sales in Q2, yet it had the smallest drop in median prices. That isn’t the case in the rest of the state and it underscores the value of working with a local Realtor who knows the local market.”

About the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®:
Organized in 1924, the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS® is a professional trade organization with more than 22,500 members. The term REALTOR® is registered as the exclusive designation of members of the National Association of REALTORS® who subscribe to a strict code of ethics and enjoy continuing education programs.

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Banker and Tradesman Opinion

EDITORIAL OPINION
BANKER & TRADESMAN NEWSPAPER
PUBLISHED JUNE 30, 2008
By: Peter P. Casey, GRI, CRB

More Health Care – Less Government!

On December 19, 2005, in a similar piece, I urged Senators Kennedy and Kerry to lead the Senate in passing the then proposed Small Business Health Fairness Act which, it is estimated, would have made affordable health insurance available to over 8 million small business owners and employees, at no cost to taxpayers. Now, nearly three years later, debate continues, compromises have been made, other votes have occurred and still no relief for small business is in sight.

The cost of health care continues to rise, health insurance for individuals and small businesses is either considerably more costly than for unions, government entities and large companies or is simply not available to those who need it most. How can we allow the Congress to block such obvious solutions to such serious problems?

How indeed when according to Senator Kennedy, “The United States must also join the other industrialized nations of the world in granting every citizen the right to affordable and effective health care.” How can he and others block the very thing they purport to believe is mandatory? Why, as citizens, do we allow this “my way or the highway” approach to any legislation? Over the more than twenty-five years this issue has been on the table, many partial solutions like The Small Business Health Fairness Act have emerged. Had some of these been adopted at the time, it is likely that many of the millions currently without coverage would be happily insured.

Can it be that this is just not important to the average person? Not likely! Health coverage is one of the highest priorities for most Americans polled in this election cycle. In a recent poll of likely voters and Realtors®, sponsored by the National Association of Realtors®, health care was the number one domestic policy concern of both likely voters and Realtors® and second only to Iraq when included among all policy concerns. In fact, voters and Realtors® agreed on most of the eleven leading health care reform proposals and were either skeptical or divided only on a government run single-payer health system, on mandatory individual insurance and on requiring employers to contribute to the cost of coverage. All agree that the system is broken and must be fixed.

So, given that affordable health care available to everyone is desirable and given that neither the insurance industry nor our Federal Government have been willing to allow it or able to provide it after trying for more than twenty-five years and given that health care costs are escalating far faster than general inflation, what is the solution?

As the result of overwhelming frustration and utter helplessness growing out of a recent family illness, I have come to recognize that greater than 50% (probably more) of the cost of health care is purely administrative; that is to say, simply rear-end covering paper pushing. I was at the same time astonished to see it first hand and furious that the care required by someone I love frequently waited while the paper pushers completed their often redundant piles of paper. This could only get worse if our government, among the worlds leading experts on paper pushing, ran the system.

How about telling the Congress to get out of health care altogether, save for paying the medical bills of those who are truly in need. This would surely be the single most effective paperwork reduction act of all times, it would save the forests and significantly reduce the administrative costs of medical care. We all win!

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